A $17 billion refinery planned by Aliko Dangote on Kenya’s Lamu Island will reshape East Africa’s fuel supply chain and trigger billions in ancillary infrastructure investment
Executive summary: Aliko Dangote agreed to build a $17 billion, 700,000‑barrel‑per‑day refinery on Kenya’s Lamu Island to serve Kenya and Uganda. The project will add substantial refining capacity to East Africa, reducing the region’s need to import refined fuels and potentially altering crude trade patterns.
Who is involved: Aliko Dangote (Dangote Group), Kenyan government (Lamu Island authorities), Ugandan oil stakeholders, and potential contractors/financiers.
Likely next: Feasibility studies and financing arrangements are expected to conclude by late 2026, with construction potentially starting in 2027 and first oil targeted for 2030.
The announcement confirms that Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote has agreed to construct a 700,000‑barrel‑per‑day refinery on Lamu Island, Kenya, with an estimated cost of $17 billion. The facility is slated to process crude for Kenya, Uganda and other neighboring states, aiming to cut the region’s reliance on imported refined products. By locating the refinery on Lamu, the project also seeks to leverage the port’s deep‑water access and stimulate local employment and services. Analysts note that successful delivery could shift regional trade flows and spur complementary investments in pipelines, storage and power generation.
Timeline
- — Egypt’s LNG Comeback Is Set to Start in Cyprus (OilPrice)
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Analysis — what this means
Sectors affected
- Oil refining
- Port and maritime logistics (Lamu port)
- Construction and engineering services