A Brazilian rare‑earths hopeful urges the EU to break China’s grip on the critical minerals supply chain
Executive summary: Rafael Moreno, whose company has opened a demo plant in Brazil, said it is paramount to end China’s stranglehold on rare earths and supply the EU within two years, citing market nervousness ahead of the Trump‑Xi summit. Rare earths are indispensable for clean‑energy tech, defence systems and high‑performance electronics; reducing reliance on China would bolster EU strategic autonomy and mitigate supply‑risk.
Who is involved: Rafael Moreno (mining company head), the EU (potential buyer), China (current dominant supplier), and the forthcoming Trump‑Xi summit (context).
Likely next: The company aims to advance from demo to pilot plant and secure EU off‑take agreements by 2028; stakeholders will watch for policy support, financing milestones and summit outcomes.
Rafael Moreno, head of a mining firm with a demonstration plant in Brazil, warned that market nerves are rising ahead of the upcoming Trump‑Xi summit and stressed that ending China’s dominance in rare earths is “paramount” for EU security of supply. His comments come as the EU seeks to diversify sources for minerals essential to EVs, wind turbines and defence technology. The interview highlights growing geopolitical pressure on Beijing’s near‑monopoly of processed rare earths.
What's next — scenarios
Base: steady progress to commercial supply (50%)
Demo plant scales to pilot by 2027 and the company signs EU supply contracts targeting delivery by 2028.
- Positive feasibility study released mid‑2026
- EU grants matching funds under its Critical Raw Materials Act
Upside: accelerated EU support brings forward supply (30%)
Fast‑track financing and EU subsidies enable pilot operation by late 2026 and commercial shipments by 2027.
- EU announces dedicated rare‑earth subsidies Q4 2026
- Company secures an off‑take agreement with an EU automaker Q1 2027
Downside: project stalls, dependence on China persists (20%)
Financing delays or regulatory hurdles keep the venture at demo stage, leaving the EU reliant on Chinese rare earths beyond 2030.
- Brazilian environmental licensing for expansion denied Q3 2026
- Global rare‑earth price index declines sharply, reducing investment incentives
What to watch
- Trump‑Xi summit outcome (late September 2026)
- Updates on the Brazilian demo plant’s expansion to pilot scale (quarterly 2026‑2027)
- Company’s announcement of a commercial supply contract with the EU (expected by 2028)
Timeline
- — China’s stranglehold on rare earths must be ended, says hopeful supplier to EU (The Guardian — Business)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- Company targets commercial rare‑earth supply to the EU by 2028
- Trump‑Xi summit scheduled for late September 2026
Sectors affected
- Rare‑earth mining
- Electric vehicle manufacturing
- Wind turbine production
- Defence electronics
Key entities
Sources
- China’s stranglehold on rare earths must be ended, says hopeful supplier to EU — The Guardian — Business