Analyst warns Lovaglio's Mps-Bpm Generali plan is challenging as investors favor Intesa and French stakeholders resist dilution
Executive summary: Economist Messori said Lovaglio’s plan to exchange Montepaschi shares for Banco Bpm and Generali stakes is arduous, noting that without support from major shareholders Delfin and Caltagirone the October Siena assembly may lack quorum, and that Crédit Agricole prefers to maintain its Bpm stake rather than dilute into a third pole. The outcome will shape the structure of Italy’s banking sector, determining whether a new third pole emerges around Montepaschi or whether Intesa Sanpaolo gains a stronger position through a potential takeover.
Who is involved: Lovaglio (Montepaschi CEO), Delfin and Caltagirone (major Montepaschi shareholders), Crédit Agricole (French investor in Banco Bpm), Intesa Sanpaolo, and various asset-management funds.
Likely next: The October 2026 Montepaschi shareholder meeting will vote on the two exchange offers; antitrust regulators will also review the proposed deal for competition concerns.
Economist Messori told Repubblica that the complex exchange plan proposed by Montepaschi’s CEO Lovaglio faces steep hurdles, noting that if major shareholders Delfin and Caltagirone do not back the two exchange offers at the October Siena assembly, reaching a quorum will be difficult. He added that Crédit Agricole, the French investor in Banco Bpm, prefers to keep its stake intact rather than dilute into a third pole, while many funds would rather back an Intesa-led deal. The comments highlight the growing tension between Lovaglio’s strategy and the preferences of key investors and the French partner, setting the stage for a pivotal shareholder vote.
What's next — scenarios
Base: plan approved with concessions (40%)
MPS proceeds with the Bpm and Generali exchange offers, creating a third pole in Italian banking.
- Delfin and Caltagirone approve the offers at the October shareholder meeting
- Antitrust clearance obtained
Upside: French stake increases, leading to full integration (30%)
Crédit Agricole raises its stake in Banco Bpm, paving the way for a Franco‑Italian banking giant.
- Crédit Agricole announces additional Bpm share purchases before year‑end 2026
- French regulatory support for increased holding
Downside: plan fails, Intesa launches hostile bid (30%)
Intesa Sanpaolo acquires Montepaschi, reshaping Italian banking consolidation.
- Shareholders reject Lovaglio’s exchange offers at the October meeting
- Intesa improves its takeover proposal
What to watch
- October 2026 Montepaschi shareholder meeting to vote on Lovaglio’s exchange offers
Timeline
- — Messori: “Il piano di Lovaglio è arduo, i fondi preferiscono Intesa e i francesi non mollano Bpm” (la Repubblica — Economia)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- October 2026 Montepaschi shareholder meeting to vote on the two exchange offers (Banco Bpm and Assicurazioni Generali)
Sectors affected
- Italian banking
- Bank M&A
- European financial services
Key entities
Sources
- Messori: “Il piano di Lovaglio è arduo, i fondi preferiscono Intesa e i francesi non mollano Bpm” — la Repubblica — Economia
Related cases
- Generali may trim its MPS stake as Lovaglio’s plan advances, reshaping Trieste’s insurance‑bank nexus
- MPS launches dual exchange offers for Banco BPM and Banca Generali to fend off Intesa Sanpaolo, but markets and analysts are sceptical while Generali and political actors weigh in
- Italy opens talks with Crédit Agricole over Monte dei Paschi sale as political pressure mounts for a domestic buyer
- Unipol remains a passive observer as Montepaschi’s Lovaglio prepares a bold counter‑offer, leaving the government’s stance on the deal uncertain
- Intesa Sanpaolo's takeover bid for Monte dei Paschi di Siena gains broad consensus, but the fairness of the price for Siena's shareholders remains unresolved
- Monte dei Paschi di Siena’s CEO claims the bank’s true value exceeds €30 bn, framing it as an undervalued national asset