Clariant CEO argues green transition requires price reductions and tax incentives, not just subsidies, to drive demand for sustainable products
Executive summary: Clariant CEO Conrad Keijzer published an op-ed in Handelsblatt arguing that the green transition cannot rely solely on increasing subsidies and must instead focus on reducing the prices of green products and using tax incentives to stimulate demand. This shifts the climate policy debate from supply-side subsidies to demand-side economic incentives, potentially influencing how governments and corporations structure climate investments and measure the effectiveness of green industrial policies.
Who is involved: Conrad Keijzer (CEO of Clariant), Handelsblatt (publisher), implied stakeholders include EU and German policymakers, green technology firms, and investors in sustainable industries.
Likely next: Policy debates in Germany and the EU may increasingly evaluate tax incentives and pricing mechanisms alongside subsidy programs; Clariant and similar firms may advocate for reforms in green deal implementation frameworks.
The Handelsblatt op-ed by Clariant CEO Conrad Keijzer contends that merely increasing subsidies is insufficient to accelerate the green transition; instead, lowering the prices of green products through innovation and scale, combined with targeted tax incentives, is essential to stimulate genuine market demand. This reflects a growing business-led critique of subsidy-dependent climate policy, emphasizing market mechanisms over state spending. The argument aligns with broader industry calls for demand-side policies that make green options economically attractive without permanent fiscal support.
What's next — scenarios
Market-Driven Parity (50%)
Green chemical products achieve cost-competitiveness with fossil alternatives, driving volume growth via market demand rather than mandates.
- Significant drop in CAPEX for green hydrogen-based chemical plants
- Commodity price decline for bio-based feedstocks
Subsidy Trap & Stagnation (30%)
Reliance on government grants leads to 'zombie' green projects that fail to scale once fiscal support is withdrawn.
- Project delays due to regulatory complexity
- Declining utilization rates in non-subsidized green facilities
Accelerated Tax Shift (20%)
Policy focus shifts from direct grants to carbon tax increases and investment tax credits, favoring large-scale industrial players.
- Implementation of new EU-wide carbon border adjustment mechanisms
- Shift in national budget allocations from direct subsidies to tax incentives
What to watch
- ECB interest rate decisions impacting green CAPEX financing (next 60 days)
- Next round of EU Green Deal legislative amendments (next 90 days)
- Quarterly earnings reports from major specialty chemical firms regarding green premium margins (next 45 days)
Timeline
- — Gastkommentar: Die Klimawende gelingt nicht nur mit immer mehr Subventionen (Handelsblatt)
- — Klimastudie: Staat handelte mit Subventionen in Energiekrise klimaschädlich (Handelsblatt)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- EU Commission review of Green Deal Industrial Plan expected Q4 2026
- German federal budget negotiations for 2027 climate subsidies underway
Sectors affected
- specialty chemicals
- renewable energy technology
- green industrial manufacturing
Regulatory implications
- Germany may expand investment tax credits for low-carbon industrial processes under Klimaschutzgesetz
Historical parallels
- Germany’s feed-in tariff (EEG) reforms 2014–2017 shifted from guaranteed prices to market premiums
- U.S. Inflation Reduction Act 2022 uses tax credits, not grants, to incentivize clean energy deployment