Control of maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz is emerging as a core determinant of geopolitical power, shifting corporate risk calculations for energy, shipping and trade flows
Executive summary: Historian Xavier Carpentier‑Tanguy contends that control of flows, illustrated by the tension over the Strait of Hormuz, defines a new geopolitical order termed ‘rhécratie’. This shifts the basis of power from static assets like land and resources to the ability to manage global supply chains, directly affecting corporate strategy in energy, shipping, trade and technology sectors.
Who is involved: Historian Xavier Carpentier‑Tanguy; global shipping and energy firms; governments monitoring Hormuz (United States, Iran and regional actors).
Likely next: Increased diplomatic and military focus on securing chokepoints; companies may invest in flow‑monitoring technology and diversify supply routes to mitigate disruption risk.
The article cites historian Xavier Carpentier‑Tanguy, who argues that the struggle over the Strait of Hormuz exemplifies an emerging ‘rhécratie’ in which power derives from regulating flows of goods, data and energy rather than from territorial dominance. He notes that traditional metrics of power—land, resources, military—are increasingly supplemented by the ability to monitor and restrict global supply chains. This reframing implies that multinational corporations must now factor flow‑control capabilities into strategic planning, investment decisions and regulatory compliance.
Timeline
- — « La puissance ne repose plus seulement sur les territoires, les ressources ou l’armée : elle dépend de la capacité à contrôler les flux » (Le Monde — Économie)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- US administration may announce a new naval deployment to the Hormuz region by mid‑August 2026.
- Iran could threaten to close the Strait of Hormuz if sanctions are intensified, potentially triggering oil price spikes.
- The International Maritime Organization may convene an emergency session on chokepoint security by September 2026.
Sectors affected
- Maritime shipping
- Oil and gas logistics
- Global semiconductor supply chain (due to reliance on shipping)
- Insurance and risk management
Regulatory implications
- Possible expansion of US sanctions targeting entities that facilitate Hormuz blockades, enforceable under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
- EU may consider updating its Dual‑Use Regulation to cover flow‑control technologies applicable to maritime chokepoints.
- UN Security Council could adopt a resolution on freedom of navigation in Hormuz by Q4 2026.
Historical parallels
- 1973 Oil Crisis – OPEC embargo highlighted vulnerability of oil flows.
- 1990‑1991 Gulf War – Coalition forces secured the Strait of Hormuz to guarantee oil shipments.
- 2019‑2020 Strait of Hormuz tensions – US‑Iran confrontations over tanker seizures raised global freight and insurance costs.
Key entities
Sources
- « La puissance ne repose plus seulement sur les territoires, les ressources ou l’armée : elle dépend de la capacité à contrôler les flux » — Le Monde — Économie
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