Experts warn that Italy’s flat‑tax regime fuels tax evasion, costing the state an estimated €37 billion in lost revenue
Executive summary: Tax expert Brambilla warned that Italy’s flat‑tax regime drives evasion, and the Ministry of Finance estimated €37 billion of missing revenue. The revelation underscores fiscal inequities and strains public finances, prompting debate over tax reform.
Who is involved: Economist Brambilla, the Italian Ministry of Finance (MEF), taxpayers, and legislators.
Likely next: Parliamentary committees may examine the flat‑tax system and consider adjustments to IRPEF brackets or possible abolition of preferential regimes.
Tax expert Brambilla argues that the flat‑tax system encourages under‑reporting of income, while the Ministry of Finance quantifies the resulting revenue shortfall at €37 billion. The figure highlights a significant fiscal gap that could affect public spending and renews debate over the fairness of preferential tax regimes. The story is based on a single expert opinion and an official estimate, with no contradictory data presented in the sources.
What's next — scenarios
Base: reform stalled – flat‑tax remains unchanged (40%)
Continued evasion risk and the €37 bn revenue gap persists.
- No parliamentary vote on tax reform by end of 2026 Q4
- MEF revenue estimates stay around €37 bn
- No new legislation introduced
Upside: flat‑tax revised – evasion declines (35%)
Revenue recovers up to €15 bn as compliance improves.
- Parliament passes amendment to IRPEF brackets by March 2027
- MEF publishes revised forecast showing lower gap
- Tax authority launches compliance campaign
Downside: flat‑tax expanded – evasion rises (25%)
Revenue shortfall widens to >€50 bn, increasing fiscal pressure.
- Government extends flat‑tax to additional income brackets
- MEF warns of higher evasion in quarterly report
- Opposition blocks reform efforts
Timeline
- — Le flat tax spingono l’evasione. “Un potente motore per il nero” (la Repubblica — Economia)
- — Le tute blu tartassate versano quasi il doppio di una partita Iva: le iniquità del Fisco (la Repubblica — Economia)
Sources
- Le flat tax spingono l’evasione. “Un potente motore per il nero” — la Repubblica — Economia
- Le tute blu tartassate versano quasi il doppio di una partita Iva: le iniquità del Fisco — la Repubblica — Economia