Franchising turnover hits €39 billion, +8% in 2025
Executive summary: In 2025, Italy's franchising sector reached €39 billion in turnover, an 8% year‑on‑year increase. The growth shows the sector's strong contribution to the economy but also highlights untapped potential for further expansion.
Who is involved: Assofranchising, led by President Massimiliano Maffioli, and franchise operators across the country.
Likely next: Continued growth is expected as more brands adopt franchise models and regulatory support may increase.
The Italian franchising sector recorded €39 billion in revenue for 2025, up 8% from the previous year. This performance reflects strong market confidence but also indicates that a substantial share of the sector's potential remains under‑exploited. Industry leaders, including Assofranchising president Massimiliano Maffioli, suggest that further regulatory facilitation could accelerate growth.
What's next — scenarios
Steady Organic Growth (Base Case) (60%)
Current franchisor margins remain stable as growth tracks with existing consumer demand and moderate expansion.
- Continued 7-9% year-on-year revenue growth
- Steady expansion of food and service sectors
Regulatory-Driven Acceleration (Upside) (25%)
Reduced administrative barriers lead to a surge in new franchise agreements and rapid market penetration.
- Passage of new facilitation laws
- Increase in new franchise contract registrations
Market Saturation & Stagnation (Downside) (15%)
Diminishing returns on new outlets lead to increased competition and margin compression for established players.
- Deceleration of turnover growth below 5%
- Increase in franchise failure rates
Capital Intensive Overexpansion (Volatility) (1%)
Aggressive expansion fueled by debt leads to high operational risk if consumer spending dips.
- Significant rise in sector-wide leverage
- Rapid increase in unit count without proportional revenue growth
What to watch
- Quarterly retail turnover data for the hospitality and service sectors (next 90 days)
- Legislative updates regarding franchising deregulation in the Italian Parliament (next 60 days)
- Assofranchising annual industry report updates on new contract volumes (next 30-60 days)
Timeline
- — Nel 2025 il giro d’affari del franchising raggiunge i 39 miliardi di euro (+8%) (Il Sole 24 Ore — Economia)
- — Entwurf: Arbeitsministerium will Acht-Stunden-Tag nicht generell lockern (Handelsblatt)
- — Fiere, ricavi record nel 2025 e primi sei mesi in crescita quest’anno (Il Sole 24 Ore — Economia)
- — Chemie: Evonik streicht über 2000 Stellen in Deutschland (Handelsblatt)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- More franchisors seeking expansion
- Increased foreign franchise entries
- Higher investment in franchise technology
Sectors affected
- Franchising
- Retail
- Food & beverage
- Services
Regulatory implications
- Antitrust scrutiny of dominant franchise networks
- Labor law adjustments affecting franchise staffing
Historical parallels
- 2005-2007 franchising boom in Italy
- Early 2000s rise of retail franchise chains
- 2010s growth of service sector franchises
Sources
- Nel 2025 il giro d’affari del franchising raggiunge i 39 miliardi di euro (+8%) — Il Sole 24 Ore — Economia
- Fiere, ricavi record nel 2025 e primi sei mesi in crescita quest’anno — Il Sole 24 Ore — Economia
- Entwurf: Arbeitsministerium will Acht-Stunden-Tag nicht generell lockern — Handelsblatt
- Chemie: Evonik streicht über 2000 Stellen in Deutschland — Handelsblatt