French presidential candidates’ push to abolish the 35‑hour work week is really aimed at cutting hourly wage costs, jurist warns
Executive summary: French presidential candidates have called for the removal of the legal 35‑hour work week, saying it would allow workers to work more hours. If adopted, the change could lower hourly labour costs for firms but also put downward pressure on wages, affecting household purchasing power and sectoral competitiveness.
Who is involved: French presidential candidates, labour law specialist Joseph‑ (referenced in the article), French workers, and employers.
Likely next (inference): The issue will continue to be debated in the campaign; any formal legislative proposal would face scrutiny from unions and possibly trigger parliamentary discussion.
The article reports that several candidates in the upcoming French presidential election have proposed eliminating the statutory 35‑hour work week, framing it as a way to let employees work more. A labour law specialist argues that the real motive behind the proposal is to reduce the price of an hour of work, thereby lowering labour costs for employers. The debate touches on broader tensions between competitiveness, wage levels, and working‑time regulations in France. No concrete legislative text has been presented yet.
What's next — scenarios
Inference: scenarios and probabilities are Beyond's assessment, not reported fact.
Status Quo Prevails (55%)
French labor costs and operational planning remain stable, with no immediate need to adjust supply chain pricing models based on labor flexibility.
- Consolidation of center-right and left-wing candidates into a runoff duo without radical labor platforms
- Failure to pass a specific legislative bill on working hours by the first half of 2025
Liberalization Win (30%)
Major French employers may renegotiate labor contracts to reduce variable cost components, potentially leading to a short-term boost in gross margins for labor-intensive industries.
- A pro-business candidate wins the presidency
- The Constitutional Council upholds a decree extending optional work hours beyond 40 hours without premium pay caps
Labor Market Disruption (15%)
Escalating industrial action or a surge in expatriation of capital will disrupt operations and increase contingency costs for multinational companies with French subsidiaries.
- General strikes exceeding 3 days triggered by legislative attempts to modify working time laws
- Significant increase in CGT/UNSA strike coordination ahead of parliamentary elections
What to watch
- Publication of detailed policy white papers on working time by top polling candidates by end of Q1 2025
- National General Council (Conseil d'Orientation des Retraites) or Ministriel meetings on labor flexibility in April 2025
- Polling data shifts regarding 'competitiveness' vs 'social justice' priorities by mid-April 2025
- Trade union announcements of strike schedules for the first month of the winning campaign's second term
Timeline
- — « Dans le débat sur les 35 heures, on dit “travailler plus” pour dire “payer moins” » (Le Monde — Économie)
Key entities
Sources
- « Dans le débat sur les 35 heures, on dit “travailler plus” pour dire “payer moins” » — Le Monde — Économie