Goldman Sachs warns that prolonged Middle East conflict could push Brent crude to $120 per barrel by year‑end
Executive summary: Goldman Sachs warned that sustained Middle East hostilities and a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could drive crude oil prices to $120 per barrel by the end of 2026. Higher oil prices raise costs for airlines, shipping, manufacturing and households, potentially fueling inflation and squeezing corporate margins.
Who is involved: Goldman Sachs, Middle East belligerents (unspecified), global oil markets, energy consumers and producers.
Likely next: Markets will monitor geopolitical developments; OPEC+ may adjust output policies; if the conflict persists, upward pressure on oil prices could continue.
Goldman Sachs has issued a warning that if the war in the Middle East continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for an extended period, crude oil prices could rise to $120 per barrel toward the end of 2026. The forecast is based on current geopolitical tensions and their potential impact on global oil supply chains. Such a price increase would affect energy‑intensive industries, transportation costs, and broader inflation trends.
Timeline
- — Goldman Warns Oil Could Hit $120 as Middle East War Drags On (OilPrice)
- — VAT to be cut from household energy bills in October (BBC Business)
- — Telemarketing energia, giuristi: validi i consensi raccolti prima della riforma (Il Sole 24 Ore — Economia)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- If the Middle East war continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed beyond current levels, Goldman projects Brent crude could reach $120 per barrel by the end of 2026.
Sectors affected
- Upstream oil & gas production
- Airlines
- Shipping & logistics
- Petrochemical manufacturing
Historical parallels
- 1973 Arab‑Israeli war triggered an oil embargo and price surge
- 1990 Gulf War led to a temporary oil price spike
- 2022 Russia‑Ukraine conflict caused Brent to exceed $120/bbl
Sources
- Goldman Warns Oil Could Hit $120 as Middle East War Drags On — OilPrice
- VAT to be cut from household energy bills in October — BBC Business
- Telemarketing energia, giuristi: validi i consensi raccolti prima della riforma — Il Sole 24 Ore — Economia
Related cases
- Goldman Sachs partner warns that heavy reliance on AI could erode junior bankers' independent thinking skills
- The Strait of Hormuz moves about a fifth of world oil, making markets vulnerable to any prolonged regional conflict
- Spain activates a diesel tax‑relief safeguard, raising the hydrocarbon‑tax rebate to 20 cents per litre while cutting the gasoline rebate to 5 cents, as pump prices hit record highs and crude climbs
- Goldman Sachs doubles diesel refining margin forecast to $63/barrel as Middle East and Russian refinery strikes tighten global supply
- Oil prices climb as renewed Middle East hostilities raise supply‑risk concerns
- Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply this week even as broader oil flows show signs of recovery