Gulf Cooperation Council stock markets lost 6.2% of their value in 2025, led by a 13.6% slide in Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index
Executive summary: In 2025 the total market value of Gulf Cooperation Council stock exchanges declined by 6.20%, driven by a 13.6% fall in Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul index, according to the CCG Statistics Council. The equity downturn signals reduced investor confidence in Gulf markets, which can affect capital inflows, bank valuations and broader economic sentiment in the region.
Who is involved: GCC stock exchanges, Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul, the CCG Statistics Council, regional investors and financial institutions.
Likely next: Market watchers will monitor upcoming oil‑price trends, Hormuz‑related diplomatic developments and any GCC central bank policy moves that could influence equity recovery or further pressure.
The CCG Statistics Council reports that the combined market value of Gulf bourses fell 6.20% in 2025, with Saudi Arabia’s Tadawul accounting for the bulk of the decline at 13.6%. The drop reflects weakening investor confidence in regional equities amid persistent oil‑price volatility and geopolitical strains affecting shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. While the figure is a backward‑looking annual metric, it signals current headwinds that could influence capital allocation, banking sector valuations and regional policy discussions in the coming months.
What's next — scenarios
Base: Modest recovery as oil prices stabilize (40%)
Gulf equity indices could regain roughly half of their 2025 losses by mid‑2027, providing modest relief to banking sector valuations.
- OPEC+ production decision Q1 2027
- Brent crude price > $80/bbl
- CCG Statistics Council releases Q4 2026 market data
Upside: Strong rebound driven by reform agenda and oil price surge (30%)
Tadawul and other GCC exchanges could surpass 2024 peaks, attracting renewed foreign portfolio inflows.
- Saudi Vision 2030 milestone announced Q2 2027
- Hormuz security agreement signed
- Gulf central banks hold policy rates steady
Downside: Further deterioration amid geopolitical risk and oil price drop (30%)
Continued equity declines could push Tadawul below 2023 lows, raising credit risk for Gulf‑linked financials.
- Escalation in Hormuz tensions Q4 2026
- Brent crude falls below $70/bbl
- Regulatory inquiry into market manipulation announced
Timeline
- — El valor de las bolsas del golfo Pérsico cayó en 2025 arrastrado por Arabia Saudí (Expansión)
Analysis — what this means
Sectors affected
- Gulf Cooperation Council equity markets
- Saudi banking and financial services
- Oil and gas export logistics
- Regional consumer retail (food inflation)