Gulf states’ disagreement on ending the war threatens oil market stability and raises shipping risk in the Strait of Hormuz
Executive summary: Gulf countries concur the war should end but remain split on the means to achieve peace, with differing alignment to U.S. policy. The disagreement fuels uncertainty over Gulf oil output decisions and exacerbates shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for global crude.
Who is involved: Key actors include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, the United States, Iran and Oman.
Likely next: Continued diplomatic engagement between Iran and Oman may ease tensions, while Gulf states’ internal debate could persist, keeping oil market volatility elevated.
Gulf Arab states agree that the ongoing conflict should end but are divided on how to achieve peace, with some aligning more closely with the U.S. position than others. This discord comes amid heightened Iranian activity in the Strait of Hormuz, where the Revolutionary Guard has begun detaining vessels, while Iran simultaneously reports productive talks with Oman over the same waterway. The combination of diplomatic uncertainty and maritime tension creates concrete risks for oil flows, shipping costs and regional investment.
Timeline
- — Gulf countries want the war to end, but can’t agree on how (Politico Europe)
- — +++ Iran-Krieg +++: Irans Revolutionsgarden stoppen Schiffe in der Straße von Hormus (Handelsblatt)
- — +++ Iran-Krieg +++: Iran bezeichnet Gespräche mit Oman über Straße von Hormus als produktiv (Handelsblatt)
Analysis — what this means
Sectors affected
- Oil & Gas
- Maritime Shipping
- Insurance
Historical parallels
- 1990–1991 Gulf War tanker seizures in the Strait of Hormuz
- 2019 Iran‑UK tanker standoff in the Strait of Hormuz
- 2021 OPEC+ production cut agreement affecting Gulf output
Sources
- Gulf countries want the war to end, but can’t agree on how — Politico Europe
- +++ Iran-Krieg +++: Irans Revolutionsgarden stoppen Schiffe in der Straße von Hormus — Handelsblatt
- +++ Iran-Krieg +++: Iran bezeichnet Gespräche mit Oman über Straße von Hormus als produktiv — Handelsblatt
Related cases
- The Strait of Hormuz moves about a fifth of world oil, making markets vulnerable to any prolonged regional conflict
- Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply this week even as broader oil flows show signs of recovery
- Qatar's diplomatic push to reopen the Strait of Hormuz weighs on oil prices, signaling potential supply relief for global markets
- Hormuz tanker strike heightens shipping risk and threatens to push up global fuel prices
- High oil prices risk becoming a new floor as Hormuz blockage tightens global supply
- Iran's strategic chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz is weakening as Gulf neighbors build alternative pipelines, eroding its leverage over global oil flows