Italian oil producers call for a European refining plan rather than more drilling
Executive summary: Gianni Murano, president of Italy’s petrolieri, said that increasing domestic oil extraction would barely affect prices and that the country needs more refineries and a European plan, adding that more gas would help energy‑intensive firms. The statement signals a potential shift in Italian and EU energy policy from upstream expansion to downstream refining and gas supply, which could influence investment flows, refining margins, and gas demand.
Who is involved: Gianni Murano (president of petrolieri), Italian oil industry representatives, EU policymakers.
Likely next: EU institutions may discuss refining capacity measures in the coming weeks, and Italian authorities could consider incentives for refinery upgrades.
The president of Italy’s petrolieri, Gianni Murano, argues that boosting national crude output would have little impact on energy costs, while expanding refining capacity and increasing gas supplies would better serve energy‑intensive industries. He urges EU policymakers to adopt a coordinated strategy to strengthen Europe’s downstream infrastructure.
What's next — scenarios
Base: EU adopts refining support plan (50%)
EU introduces incentives or regulatory measures to boost refining capacity, benefiting downstream operators and stabilizing fuel supply.
- European Commission publishes refining capacity strategy
- Member states submit national refinery investment plans
- Funding allocated under NextGenerationEU for downstream projects
Upside: Accelerated refinery investment (30%)
Higher-than-expected capital inflow into European refineries raises utilization rates and improves margins for companies like Eni and Saipem.
- EU approves specific subsidies for refinery modernization
- Crude price spread widens, making refining more profitable
- Strategic partnerships formed between oil majors and engineering firms
Downside: Lack of EU action (20%)
Absence of a coordinated plan leaves Europe reliant on imported refined products, keeping pressure on gas‑intensive sectors and limiting domestic value capture.
- EU fails to refine capacity proposals within the next quarter
- National budgets do not allocate funds for refinery upgrades
- Continued preference for crude imports over downstream investment
What to watch
- EU Commission announcement on a refining capacity roadmap (expected within 30 days)
- Italian government’s budget allocation for refinery upgrades (next fiscal quarter)
- Monthly gas consumption data from energy‑intensive industries (released by ENEA)
Timeline
- — I petrolieri: “Più che di trivelle abbiamo bisogno di raffinerie, serve un piano europeo” (la Repubblica — Economia)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- EU Commission to release refining capacity communication by early October 2026
- Italian Ministry of Economic Development to convene refinery stakeholder meeting on 2026-09-25
- ENEA to publish Q3 2026 gas demand figures for manufacturing sector on 2026-10-15
Sectors affected
- Oil refining
- Natural gas supply for energy‑intensive manufacturing
Regulatory implications
- EU urged to develop a coordinated refining capacity plan (as stated by Gianni Murano)
- Potential revision of EU energy‑infrastructure guidelines to prioritize downstream assets
- Possible inclusion of refinery projects in EU’s Important Projects of Common Interest (IPCEI) framework
Historical parallels
- 2022 EU refining capacity concerns following Russia‑Ukraine war
- 2020 COVID‑19 demand shock that cut refinery utilization across Europe
- 2014‑2015 period of low refining margins prompting calls for EU strategic reserves
Sources
- I petrolieri: “Più che di trivelle abbiamo bisogno di raffinerie, serve un piano europeo” — la Repubblica — Economia