Italy’s Senate approves a bill giving the government one year to draft rules for a nuclear power revival targeting 2034
Executive summary: The Italian Senate passed legislation that obliges the government to rewrite the national nuclear regulatory framework within twelve months, aiming for a possible reactor restart by 2034. It signals a potential end to Italy’s 40‑year hiatus on nuclear power, affecting the country’s electricity generation mix, attracting possible investment in nuclear technology, and influencing EU energy and climate policy discussions.
Who is involved: Prime Minister Georgia Meloni, the Italian Senate, the Italian government (particularly the Ministry of Ecological Transition), and the nuclear safety authority ISIN.
Likely next (inference): The government will draft the new nuclear regulations by October 2027; after parliamentary approval, licensing procedures for new reactors could begin, with construction potentially starting toward the mid‑2030s.
The Senate’s vote marks a formal step toward reversing Italy’s post‑Chernobyl nuclear phase‑out, tasking the executive with creating a new regulatory framework within twelve months. If the framework is completed and approved, Italy could begin authorizing new reactors—potentially small modular reactors—by the mid‑2030s, altering its energy mix and investment landscape. The move also places Italy back in the European nuclear debate, with implications for EU climate targets and energy security.
What's next — scenarios
Inference: scenarios and probabilities are Beyond's assessment, not reported fact.
Base: framework approved, pilot SMR by 2030 (50%)
Italy adopts a clear nuclear pathway, enabling a small modular reactor pilot project that could attract domestic and EU funding.
- Draft nuclear regulatory framework released by the government before Oct 2027
- Parliament passes the nuclear law with a majority vote
- ISIN issues preliminary safety guidance for SMRs by mid‑2028
Upside: fast‑track approval, reactors operational by 2034 (30%)
Accelerated licensing leads to construction contracts for one or more reactors, boosting the nuclear supply chain and reducing reliance on fossil fuels.
- Government completes framework within six months (by Apr 2027)
- Parliament approves nuclear law with super‑majority (>2/3) by mid‑2027
- EU Euratom provides favorable opinion on Italy’s nuclear plans by Q1 2028
Downside: political opposition stalls framework (20%)
Delays in drafting or parliamentary rejection keep Italy’s nuclear ban in place, preserving the status quo and redirecting investment to renewables.
- No draft framework presented by the government after Oct 2027
- Senate committee votes down the nuclear legislation
- Public opinion polls show >60% opposition to nuclear restart through 2028
What to watch
- Senate committee hearings on the nuclear bill (expected Nov 2026)
- Government announcement of the nuclear reform working group (by Dec 2026)
- Release of the draft nuclear regulatory framework (target Oct 2027)
- Parliamentary vote on the nuclear law (projected mid‑2027)
- ISIN’s preliminary safety assessment for SMRs (expected Q2 2028)
Timeline
- — Georgia Meloni prête à relancer le nucléaire quarante ans après la sortie italienne de l’atome (Le Monde — Économie)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- Italian government to submit draft nuclear regulatory framework by October 2027
- Parliamentary vote on the nuclear law anticipated mid‑2027
- Potential tender for small modular reactor construction expected 2028
Sectors affected
- electricity generation
- nuclear reactor construction
- uranium supply chain
Regulatory implications
- Government to rewrite nuclear licensing and safety oversight rules within 12 months
- Update of Italy’s National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) to reflect nuclear inclusion by 2034
- Alignment of new framework with EU Euratom safety directives
Historical parallels
- 1987 Italian nuclear referendum after Chernobyl leading to phase‑out of nuclear power
- 2011 Fukushima‑driven nuclear shutdowns in Japan and Germany
- 2022 EU taxonomy debate on nuclear as a green investment