Middle East crude exports rebound to pre‑war levels, signalling resilient supply despite Hormuz strait attacks
Executive summary: Middle Eastern crude exports (excluding Iran) reached 18 million barrels per day last week, matching pre‑conflict averages per Kpler data. The restoration of export flows reduces immediate supply‑side worries in global oil markets and may ease the geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil prices.
Who is involved: Key actors include Middle Eastern oil producers (Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Kuwait), shipping firms, data provider Kpler, and market monitors such as OPEC and commodity traders.
Likely next (inference): Market participants will monitor weekly export reports, any further incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, and upcoming OPEC+ meetings for signs of sustained supply stability or renewed disruption.
According to Kpler data, shipments of crude from Middle Eastern countries (excluding Iran) exceeded 18 million barrels per day last week, matching the average observed before the current conflict. The figure shows that, despite repeated attacks on vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, export volumes have recovered to pre‑war levels. This development suggests that logistical disruptions have been mitigated, at least temporarily, by alternative routing or increased shipper vigilance. Market participants will watch whether the trend holds as geopolitical tensions persist.
What's next — scenarios
Inference: scenarios and probabilities are Beyond's assessment, not reported fact.
Base: exports hold near pre‑war levels (50%)
Global oil markets see steady supply, limiting price volatility.
- No major new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz
- OPEC+ maintains current output policy
Upside: exports rise above pre‑war levels (30%)
Increased Middle East output puts downward pressure on Brent and WTI prices.
- De‑escalation of regional tensions
- Successful implementation of alternative shipping routes
Downside: renewed disruptions cut exports (20%)
Supply tightens, potentially pushing oil prices upward and raising freight rates.
- Escalation of Hormuz attacks
- Sanctions tightening on key exporters
Timeline
- — Pétrole : les exportations du Moyen-Orient retrouvent leur niveau d’avant-guerre malgré les attaques dans le détroit d’Ormuz (Le Figaro — Économie)
Analysis — what this means
Sectors affected
- crude oil tanker shipping
- oil refining
- energy trading
Key entities
Sources
- Pétrole : les exportations du Moyen-Orient retrouvent leur niveau d’avant-guerre malgré les attaques dans le détroit d’Ormuz — Le Figaro — Économie
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