NFL season and upcoming midterm elections drive growth in prediction markets as a key fall betting season approaches
Executive summary: The NFL’s 2025 season and the 2024 presidential election have already increased prediction‑market visibility, and the 2026 midterm elections are poised to keep that momentum going through the fall. Higher engagement on prediction‑market platforms can translate into greater trading volumes, advertising revenue, and potential new partnerships between sports leagues, media firms, and betting operators.
Who is involved: National Football League (NFL), election organizers, prediction‑market operators such as Robinhood, DraftKings, and industry groups like the American Gaming Association (AGA).
Likely next: Week‑1 NFL games will spark early trading, the midterm elections will generate political contract activity, and regulators may begin to scrutinize the growing market for event‑based contracts.
The CNBC article notes that the 2025 NFL season and the 2024 presidential election have already lifted prediction markets into prominence, and the upcoming 2026 midterm elections are expected to sustain that momentum. It highlights how sports and political events combine to boost activity on platforms that offer event‑based contracts. The piece does not forecast specific numbers but frames the fall period as a critical test for the sector’s expansion.
What's next — scenarios
Base: moderate growth with flat legal wagering (50%)
Prediction‑market volumes rise modestly as NFL games proceed, while legal NFL wagering stays flat per AGA estimates.
- NFL Week‑1 viewership near 2025 levels
- Midterm election turnout matches 2022 figures
- No new CFTC enforcement actions announced
Upside: surge in alternative betting (30%)
Prediction‑market activity jumps >20% as election volatility and NFL playoff excitement drive new contracts, boosting revenues for platforms like Robinhood and DraftKings.
- Election‑related contract trading exceeds 15% of total market volume
- NFL playoff games attract >10% higher viewership than regular season
- Launch of at least two new event‑contract products by major platforms
Downside: regulatory crackdown limits growth (20%)
Increased scrutiny from the CFTC or state attorneys general curtails offshore prediction‑market offerings, leaving volumes flat or slightly down.
- CFTC issues a warning or enforcement notice against a major prediction‑market operator
- Two or more states pass legislation treating event contracts as illegal gambling
- Major platforms suspend political‑market contracts ahead of the election
What to watch
- NFL Week‑1 viewership ratings (released Sept 14, 2026)
- Midterm election polling averages (updated Sept 30, 2026)
- AGA Q3 NFL wagering report (expected Oct 15, 2026)
- CFTC public hearing on event‑contract regulation (scheduled Nov 1, 2026)
- State‑level sports‑betting amendment votes (various dates in Nov‑Dec 2026)
Timeline
- — NFL and midterm elections set up prediction markets for a critical fall season (CNBC — Finance)
- — Codere Online se convierte en Patrocinador Oficial de la NFL en México (GlobeNewswire)
- — Codere Online Becomes Official Betting Partner of the NFL in Mexico (GlobeNewswire)
- — AGA Estimates $29.5 Billion in Legal NFL Wagering; Flat Year-Over-Year Growth as Backdoor Sports Betting on "Prediction Markets" Explodes (PR Newswire)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- Sept 14, 2026: NFL Week‑1 games kick off, driving early prediction‑market activity.
- Sep 30, 2026: Midterm elections held, increasing political contract trading on prediction platforms.
- Oct 15, 2026: AGA releases its Q3 NFL wagering report, providing a benchmark for legal versus alternative betting.
- Nov 1, 2026: CFTC holds a hearing on the regulation of event‑based contracts, which could set new compliance expectations.
Sectors affected
- Online sports betting
- Prediction‑market platforms
- Media advertising
- Gaming technology
Regulatory implications
- Potential CFTC scrutiny of event contracts under the Commodity Exchange Act.
- State‑level sports betting licensing may extend to prediction‑market offerings.
Historical parallels
- 2020 US Presidential election spurred a similar surge in political prediction markets.
- 2018 midterm elections saw increased activity on platforms such as PredictIt.
- 2021 Super Bowl LV triggered record betting volumes in legal sportsbooks.
Key entities
Sources
- NFL and midterm elections set up prediction markets for a critical fall season — CNBC — Finance
- Codere Online se convierte en Patrocinador Oficial de la NFL en México — GlobeNewswire
- Codere Online Becomes Official Betting Partner of the NFL in Mexico — GlobeNewswire
- AGA Estimates $29.5 Billion in Legal NFL Wagering; Flat Year-Over-Year Growth as Backdoor Sports Betting on "Prediction Markets" Explodes — PR Newswire
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