Pascal Lamy warns that Trump’s flexible tariff tactics could backfire politically if Republicans lose the upcoming midterms, raising trade‑policy uncertainty
Executive summary: Pascal Lamy, interviewed by la Repubblica, argued that President Trump employs tariffs like a Swiss army knife but warned that a Republican loss in the November 2026 midterms would leave him vulnerable to impeachment pressure and limit his trade authority. Tariff policy uncertainty directly affects EU‑US trade flows, supply chains for autos, tech and agriculture, and raises the risk of retaliatory measures that could disrupt markets.
Who is involved: Pascal Lamy (former EU Trade Commissioner), Donald Trump, US Republican Party, European Union institutions.
Likely next: If Republicans lose the midterms, congressional scrutiny of tariff actions is expected to increase, possibly prompting legislation to require congressional approval for new tariffs and spurring EU preparations for a WTO dispute or anti‑coercion response.
The former EU Trade Commissioner describes Trump’s use of tariffs as a multipurpose tool, but notes that a Democratic gain in Congress would likely expose the administration to impeachment pressure and constrain its ability to wield unilateral trade measures. This highlights the fragility of the current US tariff approach and the potential for renewed transatlantic friction.
Timeline
- — Pascal Lamy: “Trump usa i dazi come un coltellino svizzero, ma in autunno rischia” (la Repubblica — Economia)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- US midterm elections – 3 November 2026
- EU Commission review of potential anti‑coercion measures – Q4 2026
- Possible WTO dispute filing by EU over US tariffs – Q1 2027
- Trump administration may announce a new tariff list – September 2026
Sectors affected
- Automotive (especially EV supply chain)
- Aerospace and defense
- Technology and semiconductor manufacturing
- Agricultural exports
Regulatory implications
- EU may invoke its Anti‑Coercion Instrument against US tariffs (expected 2026‑2027)
- US Congress may debate legislation requiring congressional approval for new tariff proposals (late 2026)
Historical parallels
- US Section 301 tariffs on China – 2018‑2019
- EU‑US steel and aluminum tariffs – 2018
- US‑Japan trade friction under the Plaza Accord era – 1980s
Key entities
Sources
- Pascal Lamy: “Trump usa i dazi come un coltellino svizzero, ma in autunno rischia” — la Repubblica — Economia