Renewed Russian air strikes on Ukraine raise geopolitical risk, threatening energy supplies and boosting defense spending

Russian forces launched a new wave of air attacks on multiple Ukrainian cities shortly before the NATO summit, confirming Ukrainian warnings of imminent large-scale strikes. The escalation raises immediate concerns about regional stability, energy infrastructure security, and the likelihood of broader economic sanctions or defense spending increases. Primary actors include the Russian military, Ukrainian state authorities, NATO members, and European energy markets. Expect heightened diplomatic activity at the NATO summit, possible further Russian offensives, and increased monitoring of energy supply chains by investors and policymakers. On the eve of a NATO summit, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned of massive Russian attacks; overnight, several Ukrainian cities were hit with intense aerial bombardment. The strikes underscore the continuing volatility of the conflict and its potential to spill over into neighboring markets. Analysts note that heightened military activity often leads to fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly for natural gas and wheat, and may prompt increased defense allocations in Europe.

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