Robe’s quinquennial forecast projects emerging‑market equities as the highest‑return asset, expecting 8% annualised in euros over 2027‑2031
Executive summary: Robe released its 16th quinquennial market forecast, highlighting emerging‑market equities as the asset with the highest expected annualised return for 2027‑2031 at 8% in euros (8.75% in USD). The forecast signals where investors may seek the strongest risk‑adjusted returns, potentially shifting capital toward emerging‑market funds and influencing global asset‑allocation decisions.
Who is involved: Robe (research house), global investors, and emerging‑market equity markets.
Likely next: Market participants may increase allocations to emerging‑market equity strategies; analysts will monitor actual performance and any future updates to Robe’s forecast.
The 16th edition of Robe’s five‑year market outlook identifies emerging‑market variable income as the top‑performing asset class, with an expected annualised return of 8% in euros (8.75% in dollars) for the period 2027‑2031. This projection follows a detailed analysis of macro‑economic trends, valuations and risk premia across global markets. No other asset class in the report is shown to exceed this return estimate.
What's next — scenarios
EM Outperformance Realized (50%)
Capital allocation strategies should shift toward emerging market equities to capture the projected 8% annualized euro return.
- Emerging market currency stabilization against the euro
- Consensus upward revisions of EM corporate earnings for 2027-2031
Stagflationary Drag (30%)
EM equities underperform due to persistent global inflation and high interest rates, requiring a defensive pivot.
- US Federal Reserve and ECB maintain higher-for-longer interest rates through 2026
- Significant slowdown in Chinese economic growth impacting broader EM trade
Geopolitical Fragmentation (20%)
Supply chain realignments and trade barriers compress EM valuation multiples, neutralizing the projected risk premium.
- Implementation of broad new tariff regimes affecting major emerging economies
- Escalation of trade disputes between Western nations and key EM suppliers
What to watch
- ECB and Federal Reserve interest rate trajectory statements through Q2 2025
- Quarterly GDP growth and inflation prints for major emerging economies (China, India, Brazil) throughout H1 2025
- Global trade volume index and tariff policy announcements in the next 90 days
Timeline
- — ¿Qué activo será más rentable en los próximos cinco años? (Expansión)
Analysis — what this means
Sectors affected
- Emerging market equities