The 25‑year anniversary of 9/11 highlights how violations of international law have shaped the war on terror and continue to influence global security policy
Executive summary: On the 25th anniversary of 9/11, Ronald Ofteringer stated that violations of international law have been a defining component of the war on terror, weakening the global legal order. The observation links past counter‑terrorism actions to ongoing risks for international cooperation, defense spending, and corporate exposure to conflict‑related instability.
Who is involved: Ronald Ofteringer (political scientist), U.S.-led war‑on‑terror policymakers, international law institutions, European security officials.
Likely next: Continued debate over accountability for past actions, potential policy reviews in NATO and the EU, and market reactions to any shifts in geopolitical risk.
Political scientist Ronald Ofteringer argues that the wars launched after the September 11 attacks have eroded the international legal order, making unlawful practices a defining feature of counter‑terrorism strategy. This assessment frames the anniversary not only as a moment of remembrance but as a prompt to reassess how security policies align with legal norms.
What's next — scenarios
Legal Restorationism (25%)
Increased compliance costs for multinational defense contractors due to stricter adherence to international law protocols.
- New UN resolutions formalizing counter-terrorism boundaries
- High-profile legal challenges to extrajudicial drone strikes succeeding in international courts
Status Quo Erosion (Base Case) (55%)
Continued volatility in geopolitical risk premiums as security policies prioritize pragmatism over legal norms.
- Continued use of unilateral special operations without multilateral oversight
- Stable, predictable patterns of 'gray zone' warfare
Normative Collapse (20%)
Heightened insurance premiums for global logistics and infrastructure due to the normalization of lawless conflict zones.
- Major powers explicitly rejecting the legitimacy of the International Criminal Court
- Widespread adoption of cyber-warfare tactics that bypass traditional sovereignty definitions
What to watch
- UN Security Council debates on counter-terrorism mandates (Next 60 days)
- Supreme Court or ICC rulings regarding state immunity in terror-related litigation (Next 90 days)
- Defense spending shifts toward asymmetric warfare capabilities in NATO budget briefings (Next 30 days)
Timeline
- — 25 Jahre 9/11: „Völkerrechtsverletzungen waren prägender Bestandteil des Kriegs gegen den Terror“ (Handelsblatt)
Analysis — what this means
Sectors affected
- Defense contractors
- Oil and gas sector
- Security services
Regulatory implications
- Potential revisions to EU export controls on dual‑use goods
Historical parallels
- Abu Ghraib prisoner abuse scandal (2003‑2004)
- Guantanamo Bay detention operations ongoing since 2002
Key entities
Sources
- 25 Jahre 9/11: „Völkerrechtsverletzungen waren prägender Bestandteil des Kriegs gegen den Terror“ — Handelsblatt
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