U.S. clears procedural path for a possible F-35 fighter jet sale to Saudi Arabia, potentially reshaping Gulf arms dynamics and boosting Lockheed Martin’s export prospects
Executive summary: U.S. officials have dismissed a UN report alleging war crimes in Iran and indicated they are clearing the way for a possible F-35 stealth fighter jet sale to Saudi Arabia. Such a sale would deliver a multi‑billion dollar order to Lockheed Martin, significantly enhance Saudi air capabilities, and affect the regional military balance while testing U.S. arms export controls.
Who is involved: United States (State Department/Defense), Saudi Arabia, Lockheed Martin (F‑35 manufacturer), Iran (context of the conflict), and relevant Congressional oversight committees.
Likely next: Formal Congressional notification under the Arms Export Control Act, followed by a Saudi letter of request and potential committee hearings; final approval hinges on legislative and political review.
The United States has dismissed a United Nations report alleging war crimes in Iran and signaled readiness to remove obstacles that could facilitate an F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia. This move comes amid heightened regional tensions and follows recent congressional estimates that the Iran conflict has already cost the U.S. tens of billions of dollars. While the decision remains subject to Congressional notification and possible review, it signals a willingness to advance major defense exports in the Gulf.
What's next — scenarios
Base: standard Congressional notification leads to contract within 12 months (50%)
Lockheed Martin secures a multi‑billion dollar F-35 order, boosting defense sector revenue and Saudi air power.
- Congressional notification issued
- Saudi formal request submitted
- No major bipartisan opposition emerges
Upside: expedited approval spurs additional regional interest (30%)
F-35 export sales surge, with potential follow‑on orders from other Gulf states, raising annual U.S. defense exports by >$5 billion.
- Fast‑track legislative waiver granted
- Saudi commitment to purchase confirmed
- Regional allies express purchase interest
Downside: Congressional block or hold delays or cancels the sale (20%)
Lockheed Martin loses a near‑term Gulf order, shifting focus to other markets and raising questions about U.S. export reliability.
- Congressional resolution opposing the sale
- Significant public or human‑rights pressure
- Escalation of Iran‑related sanctions complicating deliberations
What to watch
- U.S. Congressional notification on the potential F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia (expected within the next 30 days).
- Saudi Arabian submission of a Letter of Request for F-35 aircraft (anticipated by end of Q4 2026).
- Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing or statement on Gulf arms sales (likely in November 2026).
- Lockheed Martin’s Q3 2026 earnings call for any update on defense order backlog or Middle East prospects (late October 2026).
Timeline
- — +++ Iran-Krieg +++: USA machen Weg für möglichen F-35-Verkauf an Saudi-Arabien frei (Handelsblatt)
- — US-Kongress: Iran-Krieg kostet die USA bereits 38 Milliarden Dollar (Handelsblatt)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- U.S. Congress to receive formal notification of the possible F-35 sale to Saudi Arabia by mid‑October 2026.
- Saudi Arabia to submit a Letter of Request for F-35 aircraft by the end of Q4 2026.
- Lockheed Martin to disclose defense order backlog details in its Q3 2026 earnings call (late October 2026).
- Senate Foreign Relations Committee to hold a hearing on Gulf arms sales in November 2026.
Sectors affected
- Defense aerospace (F-35 fighter jet manufacturing)
- Saudi Arabian defense procurement
- U.S. defense export compliance and oversight
Regulatory implications
- U.S. Arms Export Control Act requires Congressional notification (Section 36(b)) for major foreign military sales such as the F-35.
- Potential application of the Leahy Law human‑rights vetting to the transaction.
- If any European‑sourced components are involved, EU dual‑use export regulations may also be scrutinized.
Historical parallels
- 1991‑1992 U.S. F‑16 sale to Saudi Arabia following the Gulf War.
- 2017 U.S. approval of the first F‑35 sale to Japan, marking the jet’s initial Asian customer.
- 2020 U.S. halt of the F‑35 sale to Turkey after Ankara’s S‑400 procurement, illustrating congressional leverage over exports.
Key entities
Sources
- +++ Iran-Krieg +++: USA machen Weg für möglichen F-35-Verkauf an Saudi-Arabien frei — Handelsblatt
- US-Kongress: Iran-Krieg kostet die USA bereits 38 Milliarden Dollar — Handelsblatt