U.S. crude oil production is projected to reach a new record average of 13.8 million barrels per day in 2026
Executive summary: The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released the latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) forecasting a record-breaking average of 13.8 million barrels per day of crude oil production in 2026. This sets a new production milestone, surpassing the 2025 record of 13.7 million barrels per day, potentially impacting global supply equilibrium and oil prices.
Who is involved: United States (EIA), global energy markets.
Likely next: Monitoring of monthly production data and shifts in OPEC+ production strategies in response to U.S. supply growth.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) forecasts that crude oil output will hit a new historical peak in 2026, building on the record established in 2025. This upward trajectory underscores the continued dominance of U.S. supply in the global energy market. Such production levels provide a buffer against supply volatility but may influence long-term global price dynamics.
What's next — scenarios
Base: Continued production growth (60%)
Stabilization of global crude supply and moderate downward pressure on international benchmarks.
- Consistent monthly EIA reports showing output above 13.5 million b/d
- Stable investment in Permian Basin drilling
Upside: Accelerated production boost (25%)
Significant surplus in global supply leading to price volatility and lower domestic fuel costs.
- New technological breakthroughs in extraction efficiency
- Faster-than-expected regulatory approvals for drilling permits
Downside: Production slowdown (15%)
Global supply tightens, leading to price spikes and higher energy costs for industrial consumers.
- Sharp decline in commodity prices making extraction unprofitable
- Stringent new environmental regulations limiting drilling
What to watch
- Monthly EIA production updates
- OPEC+ meeting decisions regarding production quotas
- US domestic crude oil inventories data
Timeline
- — United States on track for record crude oil production in 2026 (EIA — Today in Energy)
- — The United States produced more crude oil than any other country in 2025 (EIA — Today in Energy)
Analysis — what this means
Sectors affected
- Oil and gas exploration and production
- Refining
- Petrochemicals
- Transportation
Historical parallels
- U.S. overtook Russia as the world's leading crude oil producer in 2018
Key entities
Sources
- United States on track for record crude oil production in 2026 — EIA — Today in Energy
- The United States produced more crude oil than any other country in 2025 — EIA — Today in Energy