A top consultancy said fears of an oil glut are overblown, projecting up to 75% of prior oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz to return by year‑end, but cautioned that lower oil prices are not guaranteed because U.S.–Iran tensions remain unresolved. The outlook suggests oil supply may tighten sooner than feared, influencing price expectations, investment decisions, and risk assessments tied to Middle Eastern chokepoints. Fereidun Fesharaki (consultant), the unnamed consultancy, oil market traders, and stakeholders in the United States and Iran. Market participants will watch for actual Hormuz flow data, any diplomatic progress on Iran, and upcoming OPEC+ supply decisions that could confirm or revise the near‑term supply picture. A leading consultancy estimates that as much as three‑quarters of the oil that previously moved through the Strait of Hormuz could be back on the market by the end of 2026. While this would ease glut concerns, the analyst warns that the ongoing U.S.–Iran standoff is unlikely to be resolved quickly, meaning lower prices are not assured. The note frames the oil market as balancing a near‑term supply rebound against persistent geopolitical risk. Likely next events: Update on Strait of Hormuz oil flows by end of Q4 2026 Potential US‑Iran diplomatic engagement OPEC+ production review meeting Sectors affected: Oil and gas Energy trading Refining Geopolitical risk Regulatory implications: Possible renewed sanctions on Iran Increased monitoring of maritime chokepoints OPEC+ compliance scrutiny Historical parallels: 2011‑2012 oil price swings during the Arab Spring 2018‑2019 U.S.–Iran tensions affecting Hormuz traffic
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