Citigroup warns that while oil’s threat to the global economy has faded, an emerging El Niño could disrupt agriculture, infrastructure and productivity

Citigroup economists said oil may no longer pose the same threat to the global economy, but warned that an El Niño could disrupt agriculture, infrastructure and productivity. The warning moves market attention from oil‑price volatility to climate‑related supply‑chain risks that could affect food prices, energy demand and economic output. Citigroup economists, global energy and agriculture markets, infrastructure firms, policymakers monitoring climate patterns. Analysts will monitor El Niño developments, assess potential policy responses such as climate‑adaptation measures, and watch for shifts in commodity and equity markets as the risk perception changes. Citigroup’s economists note that oil price shocks are less likely to destabilize the world economy than in previous years, citing structural changes in energy markets and diversification. They highlight that a developing El Niño pattern poses a new set of risks, potentially harming crop yields, damaging infrastructure and lowering overall productivity. The assessment shifts focus from traditional commodity volatility to climate‑related supply‑chain challenges.

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