El Niño’s onset threatens to worsen global food insecurity, amplifying climate‑driven risks to agricultural markets

Executive summary: The UN alerted that a developing El Niño could cause droughts in key agricultural zones of the Sahel, southern Africa and South/Southeast Asia, worsening food insecurity. Such weather shocks threaten to cut crop output, drive up food prices and strain humanitarian resources, with potential spill‑over effects on global agricultural markets.

Who is involved: United Nations, national meteorological agencies, farmers and agribusinesses in the affected regions, and global food‑trade actors.

Likely next: Monitoring of El Niño intensity will continue; if forecasts hold, governments may pre‑position food reserves, insurers could see higher claims, and commodity traders may adjust positions.

The United Nations warns that the emerging El Niño phenomenon could trigger droughts across the Sahel, southern Africa and South and Southeast Asia at critical growing periods, compounding the strain already imposed by long‑term warming. This convergence raises the prospect of reduced crop yields, higher staple prices and increased pressure on food‑aid systems. While the immediate impact is most acute in vulnerable regions, ripple effects are likely to be felt in global commodity markets and supply chains.