EV sales to reach 25% of global car market in 2026, reshaping auto industry
Executive summary: BloombergNEF forecasts that EV sales will account for one‑quarter of global car sales in 2026, with cumulative electric vehicles representing over half of the world’s fleet by 2035. The projection signals a major transition in the automotive sector, affecting demand for oil, investment in battery capacity, and regulatory strategies toward emissions targets.
Who is involved: Major automakers, battery producers, governments, and investors.
Likely next: In the near term, automakers are expected to expand EV model line‑ups, while policymakers may introduce stricter battery recycling rules and subsidies to support domestic production.
BloombergNEF analysis projects that one‑fourth of all cars sold worldwide in 2026 will be battery‑electric, driven by falling battery costs and expanding emerging‑market demand. The forecast implies a continued shift away from internal‑combustion vehicles and places pressure on traditional automakers to accelerate EV roll‑outs. Governments and battery manufacturers are likely to respond with incentives and supply‑chain investments.
Timeline
- — Auto elettriche: nel 2026 una vendita su quattro sarà EV (la Repubblica — Economia)
- — Elektroindustrie: Mehr E-Autos: Deutsche Batterieproduktion steigt auf Rekord (Handelsblatt)
- — Batteriebranche warnt vor hoher China-Abhängigkeit (Handelsblatt)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- Automakers announce new EV model launches for 2027
- EU proposes stricter battery recycling regulations
- Governments extend EV purchase incentives through 2028
- Battery raw‑material prices experience volatility
Sectors affected
- Automotive
- Battery manufacturing
- Energy storage
Regulatory implications
- Increased scrutiny of battery supply chains
- Incentives for domestic battery production
Historical parallels
- Growth of mobile phone adoption in the 2000s
- Expansion of solar PV installations in the 2010s
- Rise of hybrid vehicles in the 2000s
Sources
- Auto elettriche: nel 2026 una vendita su quattro sarà EV — la Repubblica — Economia
- Elektroindustrie: Mehr E-Autos: Deutsche Batterieproduktion steigt auf Rekord — Handelsblatt
- Batteriebranche warnt vor hoher China-Abhängigkeit — Handelsblatt