EY forecasts modest Italian GDP expansion of +0.6% in 2026 and +0.7% in 2027, driven by domestic demand while external trade drags
Executive summary: EY published a forecast that Italy’s gross domestic product will rise by 0.6% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027, with inflation projected at 2.6% this year and 2.1% next year. The numbers signal a still‑fragile recovery, implying that policymakers may need to maintain supportive measures while watching external demand and price stability.
Who is involved: EY analysts, Italian government officials, domestic businesses and consumers, and external trade partners.
Likely next: Market watchers will monitor forthcoming Eurozone inflation data, ECB policy signals, and any updates to EU recovery‑fund disbursements that could alter the growth trajectory.
EY’s latest outlook for Italy shows a continuation of the modest recovery that began after the pandemic, with household consumption and business investment providing the main upward pressure. The forecast notes that foreign demand remains a headwind, keeping export‑related growth subdued. Inflation is expected to stay above the ECB’s target in 2026 before easing toward 2.1% in 2027, suggesting that price pressures will persist but gradually abate.
Timeline
- — VLCC Earnings Near $470,000 a Day as Hormuz Hopes Drive Tanker Frenzy (OilPrice)
- — El número de pisos turísticos cae un 11% a las puertas del verano, con 40.000 viviendas menos que un año antes (El País — Economía)
- — Al Thani, l’emiro “che comprò Londra” ora si prende Villa Certosa (la Repubblica — Economia)
- — La Banque de France identifie des signaux financiers comparables à l’avant crise des subprimes de 2008 (Le Figaro — Économie)
- — Crescita moderata del Pil italiano secondo EY: +0,6% nel 2026 e +0,7% nel 2027 (la Repubblica — Economia)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- ECB monetary policy decision in July
- Release of Q2 Italian industrial production data
- EU recovery fund disbursement to Italy
- Revision of EY forecasts in September
Sectors affected
- Manufacturing
- Services
- Tourism
- Energy
Regulatory implications
- Monitoring of inflation under the EU's Stability and Growth Pact
- Assessment of foreign demand pressures on trade policy
Historical parallels
- Post‑pandemic sluggish growth in 2021‑2022
- Eurozone slowdown during 2018‑2019 trade tensions
- Early 2000s low‑growth phase after the dot‑bust
Sources
- Crescita moderata del Pil italiano secondo EY: +0,6% nel 2026 e +0,7% nel 2027 — la Repubblica — Economia
- VLCC Earnings Near $470,000 a Day as Hormuz Hopes Drive Tanker Frenzy — OilPrice
- El número de pisos turísticos cae un 11% a las puertas del verano, con 40.000 viviendas menos que un año antes — El País — Economía
- Al Thani, l’emiro “che comprò Londra” ora si prende Villa Certosa — la Repubblica — Economia
- La Banque de France identifie des signaux financiers comparables à l’avant crise des subprimes de 2008 — Le Figaro — Économie