Iraq’s potential OPEC exit could boost its oil output and test the cartel’s cohesion
Executive summary: Iraq is considering quitting OPEC unless the cartel agrees to increase its oil production quota, according to Iraqi government sources cited by local media. An Iraqi exit would raise global oil supply, undermine OPEC’s market‑share coordination, and could trigger further member reconsiderations of quotas. Iraqi government officials, OPEC member states, oil market traders, and observers of OPEC+ policy. OPEC will likely negotiate a quota compromise with Iraq; if no agreement is reached, Iraq may announce its exit, prompting a market reaction and possible follow‑on exits.
Iraq’s government is signaling that it may leave OPEC if the organization refuses to raise its production quota, a move driven by financial pressures from the Iran‑war. Should Baghdad follow through, the departure of OPEC’s second‑largest producer would add significant oil to global markets and weaken the cartel’s ability to manage prices. The development adds to a series of recent OPEC+ membership changes, notably the UAE’s exit earlier this month.
Connected developments
- Ölproduktion: Irak erwägt offenbar Opec-Austritt wegen zu niedriger Förderquote
- UAE's exit from OPEC+ reduced the group's share of crude oil production and capacity
- OPEC oil output lowest since at least 2000 as US blockade squeezes Iran
- Ölproduktion: Irak erwägt offenbar Opec-Austritt wegen zu niedriger Förderquote
- UAE's exit from OPEC+ reduced the group's share of crude oil production and capacity
- OPEC oil output lowest since at least 2000 as US blockade squeezes Iran, Reuters survey shows
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