Oil price may rebound to $60 per barrel in medium term after Ormuz reopening
Executive summary: Brent crude could rise to around $60 per barrel within six to twelve months after the Strait of Hormuz is reopened under the US‑Iran agreement. A price increase impacts global energy markets, inflation trends and the profitability of oil producers and consumers.
Who is involved: United States, Iran, oil market participants, European refiners and traders.
Likely next: Prices may climb gradually, OPEC+ could adjust output, and monitoring of shipping flows will intensify.
The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz following the US-Iran agreement is expected to increase oil supply, pushing Brent toward $60 per barrel within six to twelve months. This potential price rise reflects restored shipping routes and reduced geopolitical risk, though market response will depend on OPEC+ decisions and global demand. Analysts note that while the upside is clear, uncertainties remain regarding production compliance and broader economic conditions.
What's next — scenarios
Supply Surplus/Bearish Case (40%)
Reduced energy margins for upstream producers as Brent settles near or below $60.
- OPEC+ fails to implement production cuts
- Significant increase in Iranian export volumes
Stabilization/Base Case (45%)
Predictable input costs for transport and manufacturing sectors as prices floor at $60.
- Strait of Hormuz shipping traffic returns to 2019 levels
- US-Iran agreement terms are formally ratified
Geopolitical Friction/Upside Case (15%)
Energy price spikes forcing sudden inflationary adjustments in consumer goods.
- Violation of the US-Iran maritime agreement
- Sudden withdrawal of OPEC+ support
What to watch
- Brent Crude spot price movements (next 30 days)
- OPEC+ ministerial meeting statements (next 60 days)
- TEU/Tanker throughput data in the Strait of Hormuz (next 90 days)
- US-Iran diplomatic communiqué updates (next 45 days)
Timeline
- — El brent podría volver a los 60 dólares en el medio plazo tras la reapertura de Ormuz (Expansión)
- — La apertura de Ormuz, una oportunidad para España y Europa (Expansión)
Analysis — what this means
Likely next events
- Gradual price increase toward $60/bbl over the next 6‑12 months
- Possible OPEC+ production adjustments in response to higher supply
- Heightened focus on sanction compliance and monitoring of Hormuz traffic
Sectors affected
- Energy
- Transportation
- Inflation
- Consumer Goods
Regulatory implications
- Increased scrutiny of US‑Iran sanction waivers
- Greater emphasis on alternative routing for oil shipments
Historical parallels
- 2011 reopening of Hormuz after Iran‑US diplomatic talks
- 2019 partial reopening following Saudi‑Houthi de‑escalation
- 2023 limited resumption of Hormuz traffic amid regional tensions
Key entities
Sources
- El brent podría volver a los 60 dólares en el medio plazo tras la reapertura de Ormuz — Expansión
- La apertura de Ormuz, una oportunidad para España y Europa — Expansión
Related cases
- ACS gears up for its annual Capital Markets Day, seeking to replicate 2025’s share‑price surge to €140 while navigating AI‑driven opportunities and Ormuz supply‑chain risks
- Iran says Oman‑Ormaz agreement will not reopen the strait unless the US fulfills its memorandum commitments
- Europe’s renewable transition remains costly and incomplete, with gas supply fears highlighted by the Strait of Ormuz
- Iran’s threat to tighten Ormuz closure raises risk of oil‑supply disruption and higher energy prices
- A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz would depress market optimism and raise financing costs for energy‑dependent firms
- Strait of Hormuz blockage and Houthi Red Sea attacks threaten to push Brent crude toward $120 per barrel, endangering Saudi Arabia’s vital export corridor