Rystad Energy’s forecast of a 2028 oil supply glut signals potential price pressure and market rebalancing
Executive summary: Rystad Energy’s president Jarand Rystad warned that a massive oil oversupply could re‑emerge in 2028, drawing lessons from the Ormuz strait closure. Such an oversupply could exert downward pressure on oil prices and reshape investment strategies in the energy sector.
Who is involved: Rystad Energy, oil market analysts, and potentially oil‑producing nations and traders.
Likely next: The market may see increased volatility, with producers considering output adjustments and policymakers monitoring supply trends.
The article reports that Rystad Energy’s president Jarand Rystad warned that a massive oil oversupply could re‑emerge in 2028, drawing lessons from the Ormuz strait closure. It cites a projection of excess supply that could affect global pricing. The piece does not provide quantitative estimates but frames the outlook as a market‑driven scenario.
Timeline
- — Pétrole : « Nous ferons à nouveau face à un excédent massif de l’offre en 2028 » (Le Monde — Économie)
Analysis — what this means
Sectors affected
- Energy
- Transportation
- Manufacturing
- Renewables
Regulatory implications
- Trade policy reviews related to oil imports
Historical parallels
- 1980s oil glut that led to price collapse
- 2014‑2016 price crash after shale boom
- 1970s oil crisis causing supply constraints
Sources
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